I called twenty Waikato real estate agents from across the region to get their take on the market, and this is what I learnt.
The property marketing isn’t tanking – and especially not locally – and some of the national data and that coming out of our largest cities are not reflective of the full story.
This week there has been a bit of noise out there, and as always I wanted to do something positive, and tell a story that’s staring me in the face every day at the moment.
From where I’m sitting, there’s never been more opportunity for the right buyer, in the right place, at the right time, in all areas of the market.
I was pleasantly surprised when I delved into the data, too, and connected it with the information on the ground. Always a win!
Let's dive into a few of our insights
1. Well presented, well priced properties, particularly in the middle of the market, are selling very quickly. Multiple agents provided examples of multi offers, often with numbers above the asking price, and often very quickly after listing.
2. Prices aren’t actually falling, but they are fairly flat. The Waikato median sale price was $760,000 in July, up 3.4% year on year, one of only eight regions of sixteen in positive territory.
3. First home buyers are out in force. Armed with pre-approvals, options and a slightly more lenient lending environment over winter, Cotality is now reporting that first home buyers are now occupying nearly 30% of the market – considerably higher than the long-term average of 22%
4. Low deposits are actually very common. RBNZ figures showed more than half of first home buyer loans over January and February 2026 were done at less than 20% equity, but even so the banks are still not using much more than 60% of the Reserve Bank allowance for over 80% lending. This means there is more space for banks to tap into than we might think there is.
5. The Kainga Ora First home loan is helpful, but not for everyone. Nationally, the latest figures say roughly one in seven first home transactions use the first home loan. For us in the My Mortgage team, about half of our lower deposit first home buyers are eligible for the First Home Loan, which probably reflects slightly lower prices than in some of the larger cities.
6. Interestingly, housing stock nationally is up just over 9% year on year, but in the Waikato, we’ve got about 22 weeks of inventory, one week less than the same time a year ago. One agent noted there are about 300 less properties on the market now than 3 months ago
7. Lending volumes are actually fairly steady, up slightly from last June. Total new mortgage commitments were $8.5 billion in June, down 2.2% on May but up 2.2% on June last year.
8. First time investors are more common than larger holdings. Several agents talked about investors entering the market, many of them for the first time as investors. The general vibe is that some of the larger more established investors are selling down some of their stock, and others are entering the market at an affordable level.
9. Fear of hitting the market is a thing and this one is interesting. For agents with larger databases, active buyers are still seeking out fresher listings and like to be first to see homes . It’s far from the FOMO we saw during Covid, but is an indicator that buyers are serious about taking action.
10. Lots of chat is around about the election. There are big uncertainties are around property tax and interest deductibility, and rising holding costs, and that is having an impact on sentiment.
11. Interest rates are rising, slowly. The Reserve Bank lifted the OCR to 2.50% in July, on a split decision, and with inflation at 4.1% and still above the 1 to 3% target band, most bank economists expect another increase at the 2 September review. We’ve seen the 1, 2 and 3 year rates creep up in the past month, and many clients are now looking to the medium term for a bit of certainty.
12. Bank turnaround times are the best they’ve been in a long time. Currently between 2 and 5 days depending on the lender and the application, so it’s music to everyone’s ears!
So what are the big takeaways after twenty conversations with the people on the ground?
Not one person told me the market was falling over. Several told me they’d just sold something in a multi offer, and more than one said that was happening multiple times a week.
So the gap between sentiment and what’s actually happening on the ground is actually the widest it’s been in a while.
And I think that gap is actually where the opportunity is.
Because not everyone knows about it.
There is plenty of choice out there, vendors are being reasonable, and turnaround times mean you can move quickly when you find the right place.
Add three months until Christmas, the upcoming election and a seasonal spring listing surge, and August starts to look like a great time to be buying.
Yes, we’re biased (must acknowledge that!)
But the data backs it up, and so do the twenty people who sell houses here for a living.
